A roadmap for hydrogen in New Zealand
The hydrogen vision outlined the potential uses of hydrogen in New Zealand and explored in a non-quantitative manner some of the issues around its use.
The next stage of the hydrogen strategy is a roadmap that will explore the issues that need to be resolved for hydrogens use in the wider economy, and what steps need to be undertaken to resolve these and when.
The first stage in the development of the hydrogen roadmap was an initial view of hydrogen supply and demand in New Zealand. Castalia was commissioned to undertake this preliminary work
This work was then extended to develop potential scenarios for a future New Zealand hydrogen economy, along with key drivers that will determine how those scenarios might play out. Castalia’s report into these scenarios was completed in April 2022 and will be used to help inform policy and investment decision-making about the role of hydrogen in the future and enable the roadmap to determine the right size for our hydrogen economy.
Modelling project and modelling tool
Castalia has prepared a model for the New Zealand Hydrogen Roadmap. The model identifies the key drivers for New Zealand’s hydrogen economy future. It helps inform policy and investment decision-making about the role of hydrogen in the future. Castalia also developed a downloadable modelling tool dashboard.
Description of the model
The model identifies plausible scenarios for a future New Zealand hydrogen economy, and identifies the key variables that determine how those scenarios might play out. It is not possible to precisely forecast the role of hydrogen in the New Zealand economy. However, the model can show how scenarios might develop, and which assumptions and variables are determinative. The New Zealand Hydrogen Roadmap will incorporate model outputs to understand how a wide range of future scenarios might develop.
The model shows that the major drivers of whether economic production of hydrogen is possible in New Zealand will be the cost of electricity and the capacity and scale of electrolysers. New Zealand’s role as exporter, importer or producer for domestic production will depend on relative electricity prices in possible competitor countries such as Australia.
The model suggests that demand for hydrogen is likely for heavy vehicle fleets, with other niche vehicle uses likely to follow similar technology tipping points. Gas pipeline blending to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from combustion for heating is also possible.
Online modelling tool dashboard
Castalia have also prepared a modelling tool dashboard that is available online to the public.
The dashboard allows users to change the major model assumptions to illustrate potential future states for both hydrogen demand and supply.
The dashboard is for information use only and provides limited functionality of the underlying model. It has been provided in downloadable format to allow users flexibility with generating scenarios for their own information. The dashboard and model remain the intellectual property of MBIE and Castalia and may not be used for any commercial purpose. MBIE and Castalia accept no responsibility for the any loss suffered from the use of the model, and make no representation as to the accuracy of the data, formulae or outputs. The model is not intended for commercial decision-making or as a forecasting tool. The model may not be provided to any third party, nor may it be incorporated in any product or service which is provided to third parties.