2019-2025 international tourism forecasts
This page has our tourism forecasts for major tourism markets, updated for the 2019-2025 period.
You can view the latest international tourism forecasts in PDF or spreadsheet form:
In the 2019 version of our international tourism forecasts:
- Visitor arrivals to New Zealand are expected to grow 4.0 per cent a year, reaching 5.1 million visitors in 2025 — from 3.9 million in 2018. Total international spend is expected to reach $15.0 billion in 2025, up 34 per cent from 2018.
- Australia is New Zealand’s largest visitor market, providing more than 1.5 million visitors in 2018. The forecasts show that this market will continue to be healthy, and looks set to grow by 19 per cent by 2025.
- Another key market for New Zealand is China. China visitor numbers are expected to grow 55 per cent in the forecast period, increasing from 449,000 in 2018 to reach 696,000 by 2025.
- Australia will remain the largest market by spend, though Chinese spend will reduce the gap by 2025.
See the Previous international tourism forecasts page for earlier forecasts (eg, 2018–2024).