About the tourism forecasts

This page outlines how we prepare the international tourism forecasts and what they cover.

How we prepare the forecasts

We prepare forecasts using best-practice statistical models with a range of economic data as explanatory variables. We incorporate the industry knowledge advised by a Tourism Forecasts Moderation Committee.

The forecasts are reviewed by the Committee, who can moderate and ameliorate the results.

What the forecast results cover

The forecast results cover:

  • New Zealand’s 8 major tourism markets — Australia, China, UK, US, Japan, Germany, Canada, and Korea
  • 3 fast-growing markets for New Zealand — India, Indonesia and Singapore
  • the national picture.

For each country, ‘others’, and for all markets combined, the model generates annual forecasts for:

  • total visitor arrivals
  • total visitor nights
  • total visitor expenditure
  • average length of stay per visitor
  • average spend per day per visitor.

The results also provide visitor mix by purpose of visit — that is, holiday, visit friends and family, business and other (including education, convention/conference and unspecified/not collected).

Last updated: 16 May 2019