About the tourism forecasts

How we prepare the forecasts

We prepare forecasts using best-practice statistical models with a range of economic data as explanatory variables. We incorporate the industry knowledge advised by a Tourism Forecasts Moderation Committee.

The forecasts are reviewed by the Committee, who can moderate and ameliorate the results.

What the forecast results cover

The forecast results cover:

• New Zealand’s 8 major tourism markets — Australia, China, UK, US, Japan, Germany, Canada, and Korea
• 3 fast-growing markets for New Zealand — India, Indonesia and Singapore
• the national picture.

For each country, ‘others’, and for all markets combined, the model generates annual forecasts for:

• total visitor arrivals
• total visitor nights
• total visitor expenditure
• average length of stay per visitor
• average spend per day per visitor.

The results also provide visitor mix by purpose of visit — that is, holiday, visit friends and family, business and other (including education, convention/conference and unspecified/not collected).