Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS)

The EDGS explore potential future electricity demand, and the generation capacity needed to meet that demand, out to 2050.

Purpose of the EDGS

The Commerce Commission is responsible for approving any major investments in transmission assets by Transpower.

MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS). These enable the Commerce Commission to assess Transpower’s planning proposals for future capital investment in the electricity transmission grid.

The EDGS have an explicit role in the investment test for approving Transpower’s proposals under the Transpower Capital Expenditure Input Methodology (Capex IM).

The Capex IM is part of the Commerce Commission's individual price-quality path regulation of Transpower's electricity transmission services, under Subpart 7 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986. For more information about the Capex IM, see the Commerce Commission website.

Transpower input methodologies(external link) — Commerce Commission

2023 Update

MBIE is currently preparing a 2023 update of the EDGS. To keep up to date with this work, please subscribe to receive alerts on MBIE’s energy modelling work.

Subscribe to updates(external link)

2019 Update

These electricity demand and generation scenarios were published in July 2019. EDGS explores future levels of electricity demand and how it could be met out to 2050 under five scenarios.

Download the report

This report describes the assumptions and key results for each of the modelled scenarios in the 2019 EDGS.

Data behind the report

Historic data, assumptions, and results for each modelled scenario are provided in the Data Summary file.

EDGS 2019 — Data summary [XLSX, 224 KB]

Feedback and discussion welcomed

We welcome feedback on the electricity demand and generation scenarios. You can contact us at energyinfo@mbie.govt.nz.

Last updated: 20 March 2023