Electricity demand and generation scenarios (EDGS)
The EDGS explore potential future electricity demand, and the generation capacity needed to meet that demand, out to 2050.
Purpose of the EDGS
The New Zealand Commerce Commission is responsible for approving any major grid capital expenditure proposals from Transpower.
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios that enable the Commerce Commission to assess Transpower’s planning proposals for future capital investment in the electricity transmission grid.
Transpower proposals are subject to Commerce Commission approval under the Transpower Capital Expenditure Input Methodology (Capex IM). Under this methodology, the EDGS have an explicit role in the investment test for approving Transpower’s proposals.
The Capex IM is part of the Commerce Commission's individual price-quality path regulation of Transpower's electricity transmission services, under Subpart 7 of Part 4 of the Commerce Act 1986. For more information about the Capex IM, see the Commerce Commission website.
These electricity demand and generation scenarios were published in July 2019. EDGS explores future levels of electricity demand and how it could be met out to 2050 under five scenarios:
- Current trends continue (Reference Case). The central theme of this scenario is that long-term historic trends continue, with minimal disruption. This scenario could be characterized as the “business as usual” situation, against which the other scenarios are compared.
- Accelerated economic growth. Higher immigration drives increased population growth, while policy and investment focuses on priorities other than the energy sector.
- Global economic changes. New Zealand’s economy is battered by international trends, leaving little room for growth or innovation.
- Sustainable transition. Strong environmental leadership driven by regulation and incentives, rather than technology.
- Disruptive technologies are developed. New and improved technologies enable rapid and disruptive transformation in the energy sector.
The report describes the assumptions and key results for each of the modelled scenarios.
Historic data, assumptions, and results for each modelled scenario are provided in the Data Summary file.
Feedback and discussion welcomed
We welcome feedback on the electricity demand and generation scenarios. You can contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.