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Impacts of the 2026 Middle East conflict on weekly fuel monitoring

The 2026 Middle East conflict has led to increased volatility in fuel importer costs and margins. Compared with previous global oil market shocks, the changes observed have been larger, faster and more uneven across fuel types.

Gas

Natural gas production continued to decline in 2025, with major gas users responding. Expected production over the coming years indicates supply constraints will continue to impact gas use within New Zealand.

Renewables

New Zealand’s renewable energy supply reached a record high in 2025, driven by strong growth in geothermal and solar energy. Combined with decreases in non-renewable energy supply, the share of renewable sources in both total primary energy supply and electricity generated rose to new highs.

Overview

Renewable generation reached its highest share in electricity generation since 1981, while total energy consumption fell to its lowest level since 2011 mainly due to lower industrial demand. Energy intensity hit a record low due to reduced use in the industrial and agricultural sectors.