About the tourism forecasts
This page outlines how we prepare the international tourism forecasts and what they cover.
How we prepare the forecasts
We prepare forecasts using best-practice statistical models with a range of economic data as explanatory variables. We incorporate the industry knowledge advised by a technical moderation committee.
The forecasts are reviewed by the technical committee, who can moderate and ameliorate the results.
What the forecast results cover
The forecast results cover:
- New Zealand’s 8 major tourism markets — Australia, China, UK, US, Japan, Germany, Canada, and Korea
- 2 fast-growing markets for New Zealand — India and Indonesia
- the whole markets.
For each country, ‘others’, and for all markets combined, the model generates annual forecasts for:
- total visitor arrivals
- total visitor nights
- total visitor expenditure
- average length of stay per visitor
- average spend per day per visitor.
The results also provide visitor mix by purpose of visit — that is, holiday, visit friends and family, business (including convention/conference), and other (including education).