New Zealand’s Energy Outlook: Reference Scenario
Every year from 2009 - 2012 we released a full set of energy sector-wide Reference Scenario projections of energy supply, demand, and emissions. This series has been replaced with the New Zealand’s Energy Outlook: Insight series which focuses discussion on specific parts of the energy system.
On this page
End of the series
The final article in the Energy Outlook Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis series (2009 to 2012) was released in February 2012. We'll continue to release an annual update of energy sector projections, but only in web table format. This will incorporate new and revised energy data as well as updated modelling assumptions and methods.
Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis series: 2009-2012
In this series of articles, the Reference Scenario provides a benchmark for comparisons in the Sensitivity Analysis.
The Reference Scenario is not our expectation of what is going to happen. Rather, it assumes a continuation of the broad trends of key economic drivers and policy settings, as well as current technologies and fuel choices. The Reference Scenario assumes the continuation of enacted government policies, such as the emissions trading scheme.
The Sensitivity Analysis explores the sensitivity of the Reference Scenario to the key macroeconomic variables of economic growth (GDP), exchange rate, emissions price and oil price.
Energy Outlook 2011: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis 2011 [PDF, 902 KB]
Energy Outlook 2010: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis [PDF, 567 KB]
Energy Outlook 2009/10: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis [PDF, 491 KB] (4 articles combined)
Changing Gear and Hydrocarbon Harvest Scenarios – April 2010
In April 2010 we released 2 alternative scenarios to the December 2009 Reference Scenario.
Changing Gear considered what might happen if fuel prices were very high to incentivise the use of non-fossil fuels, and encourage energy efficiency. It was particularly focused on the transport sector.
Energy Outlook 2009/10: Changing Gear Scenario [PDF, 418 KB]
Hydrocarbon Harvest considered different outcomes for the development of New Zealand’s indigenous gas and oil resources. The scenarios attempt to paint a balanced picture, noting that while there's potential to further develop our petroleum basins, there's also considerable uncertainty in what quantities of oil and gas may be discovered, and the consequential price impacts.
Energy Outlook 2009/10: Hydrocarbon Harvest Scenario [PDF, 324 KB]
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence(external link).
Accompanying data
You can also download the accompanying data for all of these Energy Outlook articles.
Data accompanying Energy Outlook 2011: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
- Electricity generation and build [XLS, 606 KB]
- Emissions [XLS, 1.1 MB]
- Energy prices [XLS, 394 KB]
- Energy supply and demand [XLS, 1.2 MB]
Data accompanying Energy Outlook 2010: Reference Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
- Electricity generation and capacit [XLS, 607 KB]y
- Emissions [XLS, 1.2 MB]
- Energy prices [XLS, 409 KB]
- Energy supply and demand [XLS, 2.3 MB]