2015–2021 international tourism forecasts

International Tourism Forecasts for the 2015–2021 period.


New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2015-2021 [XLSX, 86 KB]

The central forecasts suggest that the long-term outlook is positive, with international visitor expenditure expected to increase 48.5% to $11.1 billion by 2021.

Two alternative scenarios or ‘what if’ questions are also included in this year’s report. These quantify what will happen to visitor arrivals if:

  • there's a slowdown to the Chinese economy
  • oil prices slump and recover.

Result moderation

The 2015 forecasts continued to use a technical committee to moderate and ameliorate the forecast results. The technical committee consisted of members from the our Ministry, Air New Zealand, Tourism Industry Association, Auckland International Airport, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and Tourism New Zealand.