National Construction Pipeline Report

About the Report

The National Construction Pipeline Report provides a forward view of national building and construction activity over a 6-year period.

The report is based on building and construction forecasting by the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ), and data from building economics consultancy Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd on known non-residential building and infrastructure intentions.

It includes national and regional breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential building and infrastructure activity.

Benefits of the Report

The report gives the construction and building sector valuable information to help it plan for future demand.

The report’s aim is to outline a clear pipeline of building and construction work to support:

• planning by all participants in the sector
• scheduling the investment in skills development and capital equipment
• coordinating construction procurement (particularly central and local government), which can lead to better scheduling of construction projects
• MBIE's internal research.

Aside from looking at residential and non-residential building work, the National Construction Pipeline Report also includes infrastructure intentions. These are of a non-building type such as roads, subdivisions and civil works and cover local government, central government and the private sector.

Reports

Summary of key findings from the 2025 report

Growth in building activity in 2026 and beyond

Overall activity in the sector is forecast to continue to decrease in 2025, before a return to growth from 2026 then trending upwards to 2030 as the residential sector recovers strength.

Multi-unit consents to drive growth in residential activity

Multi-unit dwellings accounted for 53% of all dwellings consented in 2024, and this share is forecast to rise to around 56% by 2030.

Intentions remain high for non-residential activity

The intentions data suggests that there remains a significant pipeline of work and non-residential activity will return to $13.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Strong growth in infrastructure activity

Infrastructure activity is forecast to gradually increase year-on-year, to reach $19.6 billion by 2030. This is likely due to both local and central government finalising their future work programme and a higher number of infrastructure projects starting from 2025.

Key points by activity type

Residential

The report forecasts that the value of residential building activity will decrease from $29.2 billion in 2024 to a low of $26.1 billion in 2025, then rise to $32.3 billion in 2030.

More than 200,000 homes are forecast to be consented over the next 6 years, about 56% of which are expected to be multi-unit dwellings.

Non-residential

The report forecasts the value of non-residential building activity to decrease from a high of $14.1 billion in 2023 to $12.1 billion in 2024 and then increase to $13.5 billion by 2030.

Commercial building activity makes up 48% of the total number of non-residential projects expected to start in the year to December 2025.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure activity is forecast to gradually increase year-on-year, to reach $19.6 billion in 2030.

The stronger pipeline of intentions is in part due to local and central government agencies having finalised future work programmes.

Key points by location

Auckland

By 2030, 44% of the building consents in the forecast period are expected to be in Auckland. Total construction activity in the region is forecast to be 13.5% higher than compared with 2024 and Auckland will remain the largest market for building and construction in the country.

Waikato/Bay of Plenty

Strong consenting activity is forecast for Waikato/Bay of Plenty, with almost 37,000 dwelling consents expected between 2025 and 2030. Non-residential activity is forecast to fall further to $1.6 billion in 2025 but rise again in 2029 to finish at $2 billion in 2030.

Wellington

Residential building activity in Wellington is expected to see a further decrease through to 2027 before regaining some strength and ending the forecast period slightly higher than 2024 at $1.9 billion. Construction activity for non-residential and infrastructure building is expected to be relatively constant through the forecast period.

Canterbury

Residential building activity in Canterbury begins decreasing from early 2026 reducing to $3.7 billion – 24.7% below 2023 values. Non-residential building activity is expected to remain steady to end the forecast period in 2030 at $2.2 billion. Infrastructure activity in Canterbury, after peaking in 2028 at $2.7 billion, ends the forecast period in 2030 at $2.4 billion.

Otago

Further reductions in residential building activity are expected through the forecast period, reaching $1.7 billion by 2030. In contrast, both non-residential building activity and infrastructure are expected to remain steady over the forecast period.

Rest of New Zealand

The 10 remaining regions in New Zealand are combined under the ‘Rest of New Zealand’ reporting category. Total construction activity for Rest of New Zealand is forecast to continue to slow through to $9.6 billion per annum in 2027 before rising again to reach $10.7 billion in 2030.