Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited Smart Ideas funded projects

Accurate short-term eruption forecasting is a global challenge that hinges on adequate volcano monitoring and accurate interpretation of the early signs of a future eruption. Volcanic gases are the only part of the magma that can reach the surface before an eruption and the chemistry of volcanic gases fingerprints the depth of the magma that released them. It is useful to know the magma depth for eruption forecasting because the shallower the magma is, the more likely it is to reach the surface and erupt. However, we lack the models necessary to calculate magma depth from routinely collected, near-real-time and continuous volcanic gas monitoring data.We will develop a model that calculates the chemistry of volcanic gases as the magma rises, including how the gas composition changes after it leaves the magma and reacts with the water at the top of the volcano. We will use analyses from past eruptions to create mini magma chambers in the laboratory to simulate gas release in nature.Ruapehu volcano is an ideal case study due to its extensive volcano monitoring and potential eruption risk, but our model can be adapted for volcanoes worldwide.Being able to modelmagma depths in near-real-time using GeoNet’s increasingly continuous volcanic gas monitoring data will be an invaluable tool that the GeoNet Volcano Monitoring Group (GVMG) can use alongside existing real-time data such as earthquakes and ground movement.This will result in the faster relay of more accurate science advice from the GVMG to emergency managers, who are tasked with making decisions about the extent and timing of evacuation and exclusion zones; ultimately saving lives.

Geothermal power generation produces CO2 emissions due to the naturally-occurring CO2 that is dissolved within geothermal waters. The amount of CO2 produced is low when compared to fossil fuel emissions but, if we plan to continue using and grow geothermal power generation into the future, we must stop these emissions. The operators of geothermal power plants are already trialling systems that capture and reinject this CO2 back underground where it came from, which stops it being released to the atmosphere. This technology is expected to be common practice in the future. The problem is that the effects of long-term CO2 reinjection are not well known.

Our ambitious multi-disciplinary project aims to better understand how this reinjected CO2 affects the overall chemistry of the geothermal system and its influence on mineral scale deposition in the deep underground. Understanding this part of the system is critical to ensure we can sustainably and efficiently manage such an important resource.

Our team combines experimental geochemists, computational geophysicists, and industry perspectives working together within the geothermal sector with access to cutting-edge resources and data.

Ammonia, which is essential for global agriculture, presents a pressing carbon emissions challenge. Conventional production methods produce substantial carbon dioxide, impeding global carbon neutrality goals. Currently, only a third of Aotearoa’s ammonia needs are locally sourced, while the rest is imported from countries with even higher carbon-intensive production methods.

Our research proposes a transformative solution: leveraging semiconductor engineering and catalyst development to pioneer ammonia electrolysers. These innovative systems, powered by renewable energy sources like solar and wind, can convert air and water into liquid ammonia. This sustainable approach not only mitigates carbon emissions but also offers versatile applications, from fertilisers to fuel.

We envision a future where farms evolve into energy hubs, enhancing energy resilience, sustainability and affordability. Likewise, ports and energy producers can utilise this technology to produce marine fuel and bolster energy reserves. Our interdisciplinary team, composed of experts in semiconductor electronics, electrochemistry and nanomaterials, collaborates nationally and internationally. GNS Science’s partnership with the Victoria University of Wellington and the University of Auckland, along with industry leaders and international experts, ensures comprehensive expertise and resources.

Crucially, our research prioritises engagement with iwi farmers and remote communities. By fostering inclusive partnerships, we aim to develop solutions that reflect diverse perspectives and benefit all stakeholders.

In realising our vision for a zero-carbon future, we envision distributed, green ammonia production as a cornerstone. Together, our research aims to redefine the agricultural and energy landscapes, paving the way for sustainable development and global environmental stewardship.

All of Aotearoa-New Zealand’s active volcanoes are capable of erupting explosively, creating plumes of volcanic ash. Airborne ash is dangerous for aircraft, whilst ash on the ground can kill crops and harm livestock, damage critical infrastructure (including roads, vehicles and power lines), as well as be harmful to human health. Consequently, when an eruption happens, accurate and fast forecasts of where and when the ash will go are critical to enable emergency and infrastructure managers and communities to make informed decisions to protect New Zealanders. Although the models necessary to create these forecasts exist, they require eruption properties – mass eruption rate, volcanic plume height, eruption start time and duration – as input parameters. Each of these parameters will be different for every eruption. 

We will develop a suite of tools to measure and estimate eruption properties by combining multiple data sources (microphones, webcams, radar, satellites, seismometers and GPS sensors) with numerical models. By considering these data sources in combination rather than isolation, we mitigate the limitations of individual techniques whilst maximising robustness and reliability. The obtained eruption properties can then be used to initiate ash transport models and create forecasts of ash dispersion and fallout.

We hypothesise that we can provide more accurate and rapid estimates of eruption properties within 30 minutes of an eruption being detected, enabling initial ashfall and ash dispersion forecasts to be produced and communicated by one-hour post-eruption. We will also be able to provide continuously updated information as an eruption progresses and more data becomes available. Our research will enable emergency managers and community leaders to make better-informed decisions on volcano eruption impacts, increasing economic and social resilience to volcanic hazards.

Gas-driven volcanic eruptions are short-lived (seconds to minutes) explosions that occur with little warning. Like a kettle on a stove, when the pressure of the gas overcomes the strength of the lid, or mineral seal, an eruption occurs. These gas-driven events are the most common type and size of eruption globally, yet we have little understanding of the underlying processes that drive them. This is important when we assess volcano monitoring data and seek to forecast the next eruption. In this work, we will use unique laboratory equipment that has been used successfully to test geothermal reservoir evolution, to replicate the high pressures and temperatures beneath Ruapehu. Based on these experiments, we will then be able to constrain the rates of mineral growth in volcanoes. We will be able to assess the effect of mineral growth, failure, and re-growth as a proxy for gas pressure build-up and then violent release. Aligned to the experimental work is a much closer analysis of rocks ejected during past gas-driven eruptions. By using very high-resolution microscopes, we will be able to assess the timescales of seal formation prior to gas-driven eruptions and then compare those results to historical monitoring data.

Knowledge gained through this work will be directly used to develop a new forecasting tool that provides probabilities and uncertainties of an eruption based on monitoring data. By bringing in expertise from the wider volcano science community, we will be able to start to provide quantitative forecasts of the next eruption, significantly building on previous work. The results of our work will provide unprecedented understanding of these highly dangerous eruptions and we hope this work will ultimately save lives and livelihoods.

The Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ) off the eastern North Island is capable of generating magnitude >8 earthquakes resulting in severe impacts for the people, infrastructure, economy, and landscape of Aotearoa-New Zealand. The southern HSZ alone poses a 26% probability of rupture within the next 50 years. However, we have not experienced a 'great' HSZ earthquake for at least two centuries. This means that seismic hazard scientists have very limited data from which to model the effects of 'great' HSZ earthquakes. So, what indicators are out there that can help understand future HSZ shaking scenarios?

Large earthquake-induced landslides (LEILs) provide information to unravel the past history of landscape damage. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake provided many important insights for understanding LEILs in Aotearoa-New Zealand that will enable us to distinguish between HSZ-derived landslides and upper-plate fault or weather- derived landslides in the Wairarapa region. Our MBIE Smart Idea brings a novel, proof-of-concept approach to landslide and fault source research. We will create a Wairarapa landslide database using state-of-the-art LiDAR to assess LEIL distributions; undertake geologic studies to date historical (1855, 1942) and pre-historical landslides; and utilise ShakeMaps and probabilistic maps of co-seismic landscape damage to help define the source process. We will work with Rangitāne o Wairarapa iwi to explore mātauranga related to deaths resulting from the notable 1855 earthquake in this area.

Results will inform the national seismic hazard model so that informed planning can be made towards natural hazard events. Outreach with existing programs in the Wellington/Wairarapa region (WREMO, It's Our Fault) will allow us to disseminate our results to a wide set of end-users, and importantly the Aotearoa-New Zealand public.