National Construction Pipeline Report

About the Report

The National Construction Pipeline Report provides a forward view of national building and construction activity over a 6-year period.

The report is based on building and construction forecasting by the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ), and data from  building economics consultancy Pacifecon NZ Ltd on known non-residential building and infrastructure intentions.

It includes national and regional breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential building and infrastructure activity.

Benefits of the Report

The report gives the construction and building sector valuable information to help it plan for future demand.

The report’s aim is to outline a clear pipeline of building and construction work to support:

• planning by all participants in the sector
• scheduling the investment in skills development and capital equipment, and
• coordinating construction procurement (particularly central and local government), which can lead to better scheduling of construction projects.

Aside from looking at residential and non-residential building work, the National Construction Pipeline Report also includes infrastructure intentions. These are of a non-building type such as roads, subdivisions and civil works and cover local government, central government and the private sector. It differs from the Infrastructure Pipeline prototype that was produced by the Treasury’s  Infrastructure Pipeline in May 2019 which currently looks at anticipated government infrastructure projects.

Infrastructure on the Treasury website(external link)

Reports

National Construction Pipeline Report

Summary of the key findings from the National Construction Pipeline Report 2022

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) commissioned BRANZ and Pacifecon to provide a 6-year forward view of national building and construction activity.

Construction activity is forecast to decrease steadily

• National construction activity is forecast to decrease steadily to about $41.7 billion in 2027, driven largely by the reduced strength of the residential sector.
• Residential building activity is forecast to decrease from $30.6 billion in 2021 to $19.6 billion in 2027 while infrastructure activity is forecast to increase steadily to $11.5 billion over the same period.

Residential consents to fall from record high

• Residential consents are forecast to reach 223,000 new dwellings over the next 6 years at an average of just over 37,000 dwellings per year which is similar to levels seen in 2019.
• National multi-unit consent is forecast to reach 22,680 in 2022, and then fall to 14,380 by 2027.

Non-residential activity to peak in 2023

• Non-residential activity is forecast to peak in 2023 at $11.1 billion, up from $10.2 billion in 2021. From 2023, a modest fall in activity to $10.7 billion at the end of the forecast period.
• Commercial buildings dominate non-residential building work, contributing to 43% of the total number of projects, and 44% of total value.

Steady growth in infrastructure activity throughout the forecast period

• In 2021, infrastructure represented one-fifth of total building and construction activity. By the end of the forecast period, infrastructure’s share of total activity is forecast to increase to over one-quarter of total building and construction activity.
• Transport, water and subdivision projects will dominate new infrastructure activity in 2022, contributing 91% of projects and 93% of the total value.

Previous years

Future demand for construction workers