National Construction Pipeline Report 2023: Infographic

This is a summary of the National Construction Pipeline Report 2023, which provides a projection of building activity for the next 6 years through to the end of 2028.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) commissioned BRANZ and Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd to provide a 6-year forward view of national building and construction activity (through to 31 December 2028).

Construction activity returns to 2020 levels

  • In 2022, New Zealand’s total construction activity increased by 2.1% to $60.2b.
  • From 2024, we are forecasting construction activity to decrease to a low of $54.6b in 2027, consistent with activity levels in 2020.

New dwelling consents returning to more sustainable levels

  • We are forecasting almost 200,000 new dwellings to be consented over the forecast period at an average of 33,000 dwellings a year.
  • New dwelling consents will fall to a low of 29,990 in 2025 and then forecast to increase throughout the remaining period to 2028.

Private sector drives strong pipeline of work in non-residential sector

  • Non-residential activity is set to peak in 2023, reaching $12.4b, up from $11.9b in 2022.

  • The private sector is the largest initiator of non-residential building, contributing 66% of the value of research intentions over 2023-2028.

Strong infrastructure pipeline throughout the forecast period

  • In 2022, infrastructure represented one-quarter of total building and construction activity and forecast to increase, reaching $16b in 2026.

  • Infrastructure activity in Rest of New Zealand (Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Manawatu-Whanganui, Marlborough, Nelson, Northland, Southland, Taranaki, Tasman and West Coast) shows good strength, up from $2.9b in 2022 to $3.5b by 2028. A proportion of this increase will be related to cyclone recovery and building further resilience into infrastructure networks.