Response phases

The Government has released updates to the National Fuel Plan to respond to fuel supply uncertainty driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Having a plan in place gives Government the ability to act with confidence and clarity, making evidence‑based decisions rather than reacting under pressure.

After consultation with industry, businesses and other stakeholders, the Fuel Response Plan 2026 has been updated. It outlines 4 clear phases that respond proportionately to the risks to New Zealand’s fuel security.

At each phase is a set of measures that would be taken in response to escalating risks to New Zealand’s fuel security. It is designed to be flexible and adaptable to the specific situation.

Phase 1: Watchful

What is happening with fuel?

• Fuel prices are higher due to elevated global crude oil prices linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
• New Zealand continues to have sufficient fuel in the country, and on the way.
• There are no known issues with future fuel supply.

What the Government will do

• Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) are providing tips to help people and businesses make their fuel last longer and save money.
• Secure additional fuel reserves to shore up New Zealand’s fuel supply.
• Application of regulatory relief for the transport sector.

What people will experience

• Higher fuel prices.
• No restrictions to buying or using fuel.
• People and businesses may start conserving fuel to save money and make their fuel last longer.

Phase 2: Precautionary

What is happening with fuel?

• Fuel prices are likely to increase further.
• There are isolated incidences of fuel companies finding it difficult to secure diesel or petrol supply beyond their current orders.
• There are known issues with future fuel supply, but the issues are expected to be short-term. For example, if a refinery that New Zealand sources diesel from is changing its source of crude oil to a producer that is further away and the longer shipping time creates a temporary gap in supply.

What the Government will do

• Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) campaign with tips to help people and businesses save fuel.
• Implement public sector fuel implementation plan.
• Shore up fuel supply.
• Progress targeted regulatory relief.

What people will experience

• Higher fuel prices.
• No restrictions on buying or using fuel.
• People and businesses take action to conserve fuel to save money and make their fuel last longer.
• Adhere to and take advantage of amended regulatory requirements.

Phase 3: Managed

What is happening with fuel?

• There are widespread challenges for fuel companies securing diesel or petrol supply.
• The disruption is expected to be temporary but could be deeper or last longer than under Phase 2.
• The inability to secure forward orders may result in companies notifying a risk that their minimum stockholding obligation (MSO) could be breached. For example, a country imposes an export restriction on their refineries for a specified period.

What the Government will do

• Consider deploying supply reserves (for example, Marsden tank, Fuel Security Agreement, International Energy Agency Oil tickets).
• Work with industries and businesses on plans to voluntarily reduce fuel use.
• Prepare additional demand reduction measures if required, such as increasing capacity on public transport.

What people will experience

• Higher fuel prices.
• No restrictions to buying or using fuel.
• People and businesses take more action to conserve fuel to save money and make their fuel last longer.

Phase 4: Protected

What is happening with fuel?

• There are widespread challenges for fuel companies securing diesel or petrol supply.
• Critical users may face shortages at the pump (if no action taken).
• It is uncertain how long the disruption could last.
• The inability to secure forward orders may result in companies notifying a risk that their MSO could be breached. For example, a country imposes an export restriction on their refineries for an indefinite period.

What the Government will do

• Deploy any remaining supply levers.
• Communicate the need for every fuel user to play their part and businesses to develop a plan for using less fuel.
• Identify critical users.
• Targeted verification of business fuel reduction plans.
• Increase use of Commerce Act to support collaboration.
• Consider use of stronger regulatory measures to conserve fuel.

What people will experience

• Fuel users would be classified into 4 groups:
  • Critical users (including emergency services, health, schools, and lifeline utilities) would receive priority and uncapped access.
  • Food and freight would need to develop a plan to reduce their fuel use according to a set savings target.
  • Community and commercial users (such as manufacturing, construction and trades, and tourism) would also need to create a fuel-savings plan. They will have to reduce their fuel use by more than the food and freight category.
  • General public (including households) would be required to reduce fuel use through transaction limits at retail pumps.
  Phase 4 fuel user categories [PDF, 56.5 KB](external link) — Beehive.govt.nz
• Adhere to and take advantage of amended regulatory requirements.
• Requirements for a business fuel-saving plan will be as simple as possible, focusing on minimum requirements for businesses to identify their existing fuel use and how much they would use once reduction targets are applied. Clear guidance (for example, templates) will be provided to help businesses comply.

The criteria that would lead to a move between phases

Decisions to move between phases will be based on key indicators of potential issues in the supply of fuel to New Zealand. For example, whether ships are still coming to New Zealand, and if there is a disruption, how likely that is to continue for an extended period.

Greater uncertainty or notice of a short or longer term disruption would inform movement between phases. Phase changes will not be triggered by routine shipping delays or changes to vessel movements. These are common and part of normal industry operations, and a delay on its own is not a cause for concern. 

The Fuel Security Ministerial Oversight Group will be responsible for deciding whether a shift between phases is appropriate, with the group required to consider a move when there is a change in any of the 6 assessment criteria. These criteria will be used to assess a movement up or down a response phase.

The Government has agreed on 6 assessment criteria that would lead to a Ministerial assessment meeting: 

• export restrictions: If any of our source refineries introduce or relax export restrictions
• fuel stock levels plus or minus 3 days since the last published update
• a fuel company informs the government that they are unlikely to fill future orders
• a breach, or a notification of an imminent breach, of the minimum storage obligations
• any significant policy changes in Australia or the International Energy Agency 
• a significant disruption to regional distribution.

Phases can be applied separately to petrol, diesel, and jet fuel if required. Fuel types can be assessed separately.

Any movement between phases will be decided by Ministers, based on a range of advice around these factors. There are no automatic triggers. Ministers will assess the full picture each time and will publicly explain any decision to change phases. 

At every phase, the Government will continue to publish regular updates so households, businesses, and critical services know what is happening and what to expect.