2015 - 2021 forecasts

The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has updated its tourism forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2015-2021 period. The forecasts suggest that the long term outlook is positive. The 2015 forecasts continued to use a technical committee to moderate and ameliorate the forecast results. The technical committee consisted of members from the Ministry, Air New Zealand, Tourism Industry Association (TIA), Auckland International Airport, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) and Tourism New Zealand (TNZ).

Two alternative scenarios or ‘what if’ questions are also included in this year’s report. These quantify what will happen to visitor arrivals if a) there is a slowdown to the Chinese economy, and b) oil prices slump and recover.

The central forecasts suggest that the long term outlook is positive, with international visitor expenditure expected to increase 48.5% to $11.1 billion by 2021.

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