2018-2024 international tourism forecasts

This page has our tourism forecasts for major tourism markets, updated for the 2018-2024 period.

2018-2024 forecasts

You can view the latest international tourism forecasts in PDF or spreadsheet form:

New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2018-2024 [PDF, 9.1 MB]

New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2018-2024 [XLSX, 97 KB]

Key points

In the 2018 version of our international tourism forecasts:

  • Visitor arrivals to New Zealand are expected to grow 4.6% a year, reaching 5.1 million visitors in 2024 — from 3.7 million in 2017. Total international spend is expected to reach $14.8 billion in 2024, up 40% from 2017.
  • Most of this forecast growth is expected to come from holidaymakers and those visiting friends and relatives.
  • Australia is New Zealand’s largest visitor market, providing more than 1.5 million visitors in 2017. The forecasts show that this market will continue to be healthy, and looks set to grow by 23% by 2024.
  • Another key market for New Zealand is China. Our tourism forecasts predict that China will become New Zealand’s largest market in terms of expenditure at the end of the forecast period.

Previous forecasts

See the Previous international tourism forecasts page for earlier forecasts (eg, 2017–2023).