Projected regional skills outlook
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This section has a focus on forecasts [1] that provide an indication of the skills required to fill the future workforce needs for the previous and current focus areas of the Manawatū-Whanganui Regional Skills Leadership Group (RSLG):
- kaiāwhina health workforce
- freight, logistics and warehousing
- horticulture.
The picture is created by looking at
- the size of the workforce (number of kaimahi)
- predicted job openings (brand new jobs and replacement jobs for kaimahi retiring or leaving the industry)
- the corresponding qualifications needed to fill new job openings (levels 1 to 7)
The forecast data is compared to 2022 current workforce information.
Kaiāwhina health
Given the increased pressure our health system is currently facing across Aotearoa New Zealand, the Manawatū-Whanganui RSLG decided to focus specifically on the kaiāwhina health workforce.
As this sector is constantly evolving, for the purposes of this information a decision has been made to use data relating to the wider health and social care workforce in order to paint an accurate picture of the skills and training needs in Manawatū-Whanganui.
Forecasts 2028
The health care and social assistance workforce (sector defined as health care and social assistance [2]) for Manawatu-Whanganui is predicted to be 16,810 by the year 2028.
By 2028, it is estimated that this sector will have 5,261 job openings. This estimates the number of people required to fill new job openings (1,315) and replace workers (3,946) who move to another sector.
In order to fill these job openings, the following predictions indicate the qualification requirements:
- Certificate (Level 1 to 3): 1,930
- Certificate (Level 4): 196
- Certificate (Level 5 to 6): 720
- Degree (Level 7 +): 2,413
Current 2022
The health care and social assistance workforce for Manawatu-Whanganui currently sits at 15,495. This sector is the second largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP). Workers are estimated as being distributed across the following occupations (top 5):
- Personal Care Assistant: 2,163
- Registered Nurse (Medical): 1,825
- Community Worker: 545
- Early Childhood Teacher: 491
- Age or Disabled Carer: 480
Consistent with regional demographic trends, Māori are making up an increasing percentage of the health sector workforce (16.3%, compared to 14.2% in 2013).
The health sector remains a female dominated industry, with 79.3% identifying as female in 2022.
Freight, logistics and warehousing
Manawatū-Whanganui is primed to be the freight, logistics and warehousing multi modal distribution hub of the lower North Island. While this sector is difficult to define from a statistical standpoint, for the purpose of this analysis, the sector definition of transport, postal and warehousing from the Infometrics website has been used.
Forecasts 2028
The freight, logistics and warehousing workforce (sector defined as the transport, postal and warehousing industries [3]) for Manawatu-Whanganui is predicted to be 4,027 by the year 2028.
By 2028, it is estimated that this sector will have 1,193 job openings. This number is made up of 113 new job openings and 1,080 replacement roles (roles previously held by kaimahi who are retiring or moving to another sector).
In order to fill these job openings, the following predictions indicate the qualification requirements:
- Certificate (Level 1 to 3): 1,015
- Certificate (Level 4): 16
- Certificate (Level 5 to 6): 62
- Degree (Level 7 +): 100
Current 2022
The freight, logistics and warehousing workforce for Manawatu-Whanganui currently sits at 3,914. Kaimahi are estimated as being distributed across the following occupations (top 5):
- Truck Driver: 819
- Courier: 233
- Bus Driver: 184
- Labourers: 171
- Taxi Driver: 158
Consistent with regional demographics, 80.4% of the workforce are of European ethnicity. The percentage of the workforce identifying as Māori increased by 2.4 percentage points (to 21.4%) between 2013 and 2018.
The freight logistics and warehousing sector remains a male-dominated sector, with 76.1% of kaimahi identifying as male in 2022.
Horticulture
The horticulture sector remains crucial to economic viability of the Manawatū-Whanganui region. While the RSLG made a conscious decision to focus on the horticulture sector, for the purposes of this publication the wider people, food and fibre [4] definition of Muka Tangata has been used. This wider data set allows for a greater picture of the workforce needs to be created.
Forecasts 2028
The people, food and fibre workforce for Manawatu-Whanganui is predicted to be 14,151 by the year 2028.
By 2028, it is estimated that this sector will have 3,884 job openings. 98% of these job openings are for replacement jobs (as kaimahi will have retired or moved to other sectors). It is expected that the number of new jobs will not increase until 2026.
In order to fill these job openings, the following predictions indicate the qualification requirements:
- Certificate (Level 1 to 3): 1,882
- Certificate (Level 4): 323
- Certificate (Level 5 to 6): 204
- Degree (Level 7 +): 1,475
Current 2022
The people, food and fibre workforce for Manawatu-Whanganui currently sits at 14,059. Workers are estimated as being distributed across the following occupations (top 5):
Consistent with regional demographics, 82.5% of the workforce are of European ethnicity. The percentage of the workforce identifying as Māori increased by 3.7 percentage points (to 17.2%) between 2013 and 2018.
The sector remains a male-dominated industry, with 67.8% of kaimahi identifying as male in 2022.
- Mixed Crop and Livestock Farm Worker: 1,597
- Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmer: 1,011
- Labourers: 271
- Agricultural and Horticultural Mobile Plant Operator: 259
- Gardner (general): 193
- The employment forecasts in this profile have been generated from the Infometrics Industry Model. This model produces forecasts of employment for 54 industries using a mix of principal component and regression techniques to link macroeconomic key indicators (for example, inflation, interest rates, unemployment, the exchange rate and business profitability) to prospects for each industry. A key aspect of this approach is that it produces an outlook for an industry that takes into account the recent performance of that industry, the impact of key influences on business performance in that industry and is also constrained to ensure that the sum of production in all industries equals our forecasts of overall economic activity. That is, an industry can only grow faster than overall economic growth if past industrial performance and business conditions indicate that it will increase its share of national output. Infometrics then decomposes these forecasts to a detailed industry level and uses industry-occupation employment matrices for New Zealand in order to measure total employment in a defined sector. [Back to text]
- Health care and social assistance includes workers in hospitals, medical and other care services, residential care services and social assistance services. [Back to text]
- Transport, postal and warehousing includes road transport, rail transport, water transport, air and space transport, other transport, postal and courier pick-up and delivery services, transport support services, warehousing and storage services. [Back to text]
- Muka Tangata – People, Food and Fibre Workforce Development Council represents 14 industries including dairy, sheep, beef, deer, pork, poultry, and other livestock farming; arable farming; vegetables and fruit growing; viticulture and winemaking; forestry; seafood; apiculture; equine, dogs and racing; veterinary; nursery, turf and gardening; and food and fibre support industries. [Back to text]