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Short-term employment forecasts 2017-2020 - February 2018

This February 2018 report presents employment forecasts for 2017 to 2020 (March years).

Key points

Over the next 3 years, employment demand will be strong in response to domestic focused growth: strong activity in the business services and construction sectors. Employment picks up to 2.3% in 2019 and then eases to 1.7% in 2020.

Over the next 3 years to 2020:

Employment is forecast to grow by 153,000 between 2017 and 2020, but at different levels across the sectors and regions. This growth is supported by strong domestic demand over the forecast period.
Unemployment rate is expected to decline towards 4.1% over the forecast period, coinciding with labour demand growing faster than net migration driven labour supply growth expected to ease gradually.
Business services and construction sectors will continue to boost employment over the next 2-3 years.
Growth in demand for employment in highly skilled occupations (mostly managers and professionals) will be higher than the overall employment growth. Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are expected to account for nearly 28% of the employment growth over this period.
Employment grows in all regions. North Island growth is highest in the Auckland, Waikato and Wellington regions and there is strong growth across the South Island.

National employment

Labour demand weakens as economic growth eases in 2020

The overall employment is forecast to grow by:

2.1% (or 52,500) in 2018
2.3% (or 56,900) in 2019
1.7% (or 43,600) in 2020

This equates to 153,000 (or 2.0% on average) more people employed over the next 3 years.

Figure 1. Employment growth (March years)

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey, MBIE

The data table for this figure can be found at the bottom of this page

Employment rising faster than labour supply growth will make unemployment rate decline towards 4%

The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 4.1% by the end of the forecast period. With labour supply easing due to gradually declining net migration levels over time, the unemployment rate is forecast to decline steadily over the forecast period. This is despite employment growth declining to 1.7% in 2020 after peaking at 2.3% in 2019.

Figure 2. Unemployment rate

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey, MBIE

The data table for this figure can be found at the bottom of this page

Table 1. Forecast labour market indicators (%), March quarters

Labour market indicators	2017	2018	2019	2020
Employment rate	67.1	67.7	68.0	68.2
Labour force participation	70.6	71.0	71.1	71.2
Working-age population growth	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.3
Unemployment rate	4.9	4.7	4.3	4.1

Source: *Household Labour Force Survey, Statistics New Zealand; MBIE, Macro-labour market model

Industry

Business services sector and construction continue to boost

Employment will increase in all broad sectors in the 3 years to 2020. The largest increases will be in the business services, construction and utilities, and health and education sectors. These sectors will have sizeable employment growth of between 15,000 and well over 30,000 by 2020, and will grow faster than the national average.

Figure 3. Employment changes by aggregated industries* – 2017 to 2020

Source: MBIE, Short-term employment model

The data table and extended data table for this figure can be found at the bottom of this page

Occupation

Demand will be strongest for highly skilled workers

Highly skilled occupations (mostly managers and professionals) will grow faster (2.9%) than overall employment growth (2.0%) on average between 2017 and 2020. We forecast the demand for skilled workers to increase by 1.8% per year on average over the next 3 years. By 2020, employment in skilled occupation will increase by 16,000 workers.

Table 2. Employment growth by skill level, March years

Skill Level (ANZSCO based)	2017-2018 (000)	2017-2018 (%)	2018-2019 (000)	2018-2019 (%)	2019-2020 (000)	2019-2010 (%)	2017-2020 (000)	2017-2020 (%)
Highly skilled	31.6	3.0	34.3	3.1	28.5	2.5	94.5	2.9
Skilled	5.8	2.0	5.8	1.9	4.3	1.4	16.0	1.8
Semi-skilled	10.3	1.4	11.4	1.6	7.2	1.0	28.8	1.3
Elementary skilled	4.8	1.2	5.4	1.4	3.6	0.9	13.7	1.2
Total	52.5	2.1	56.9	2.3	43.6	1.7	153.0	2.0

Source: MBIE, Short-term employment model and occupational/skill decomposition

*Employment forecasts data for 97 occupations can be found at the bottom of this page.

Regions

Employment grows in all regions — some rural regions to grow at a faster rate

At a regional level, the highest percentage employment growth will be in the Auckland and Waikato regions in the North Island, and Marlborough, Tasman and the West Coast regions in the South Island.

Overall, 5 out of the 16 regions (2 in the North Island and 3 in the South island) will grow faster than the national average of 2.0% per year over the forecast period.

Table 3. Employment growth by region, 3 years to 2020

Regional council	2017-2020 (000)	2017-2020 (AAPC*)
Northland	4.2	1.9%
Auckland	66.4	2.5%
Waikato	16.9	2.5%
Bay of Plenty	5.1	1.1%
Gisborne	1.0	1.4%
Hawke's Bay	2.8	1.1%
Taranaki	2.8	1.6%
Manawatu-Wanganui	2.7	0.8%
Wellington	14.8	1.8%
Nelson	1.1	1.3%
Tasman	1.9	2.7%
Marlborough	3.5	3.4%
West Coast	1.3	2.7%
Canterbury	19.4	1.9%
Otago	6.7	1.8%
Southland	2.5	1.5%
Total	153.0	2.0%

Source: MBIE-Labour, short-term employment model and regional decomposition

*AAPC- annual average percentage change.

Detailed regional employment forecasts for 28 industries and 97 occupations [XLSX, 558 KB]

Figure 4: Annual average percentage change (aapc) by region, 2017 - 2020

Source: MBIE, Short-term employment model and regional decomposition.

Data tables

Data table for Figure 1

Period	Annual average percentage change (%)
2003	2.7
2004	2.9
2005	3.6
2006	2.8
2007	2.1
2008	1.1
2009	0.6
2010	-1.5
2011	1.0
2012	1.2
2013	-0.3
2014	2.4
2015	3.4
2016	1.9
2017	4.3
2018	2.1
2019	2.3
2020	1.7

Data table for Figure 2

Quarter	Unemployment rate (%)
1/03/2008	3.9
1/03/2009	5.1
1/03/2010	6.1
1/03/2011	6.6
1/03/2012	6.3
1/03/2013	5.7
1/03/2014	5.5
1/03/2015	5.4
1/03/2016	5.2
1/03/2017	4.9
1/03/2018	4.7
1/03/2019	4.3
1/03/2020	4.1

Data table for Figure 3

Aggregated Industry (ANZSIC06 based)	2017-20 (000)	2017-20 (%)
Primary production	5.5	1.2%
Primary processing	0.6	2.0%
Other manufacturing	5.3	1.4%
Construction and utility	6.6	1.8%
Wholesale and retail trade	19.4	2.5%
Hospitality	6.2	1.8%
Transport and storage	11.2	1.6%
Business services	9.5	2.2%
Other private services^[1]	5.8	1.9%
Core government sector	0.9	0.8%
Health and education	33.3	3.6%
Other public services^[2]	7.8	2.1%
Total	153	2.0%

[1] “Other private services” include employment in the Communication services, Finance & Insurance sector, and Property services.

[2] “Other public services” include employment in the Cultural and Recreational services as well as Personal and Community services.

Extended data table for Figure 3

New Zealand					2017-20 Changes
Industry Employment Levels	2017	2018	2019	2020	Levels	Rates
Agriculture	149,600	151,400	153,500	154,900	5,300	1.2%
Fishing	2,700	2,700	2,800	2,800	100	1.7%
Forestry and logging	7,500	7,600	7,800	7,900	500	2.0%
Mining and quarrying	4,100	4,200	4,200	4,200	100	0.6%
Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing	86,900	88,200	89,700	90,500	3,600	1.4%
Textiles and apparel manufacturing	13,200	13,300	13,400	13,500	200	0.6%
Wood and paper products manufacturing	23,700	24,200	24,700	25,100	1,400	1.9%
Printing, publishing and recorded media	11,200	11,500	11,700	11,800	600	1.8%
Chemicals manufacturing	19,700	20,100	20,300	20,400	700	1.2%
Non-metallic mineral products manufacturing	7,800	7,900	8,100	8,300	500	2.1%
Metal product manufacturing	31,300	32,300	33,400	34,300	3,000	3.1%
Machinery and equipment manufacturing	40,100	40,700	41,200	41,500	1,500	1.2%
Furniture and other manufacturing	12,700	12,800	13,000	13,100	300	0.8%
Electricity, gas and water supply	20,200	20,800	21,400	22,000	1,700	2.8%
Construction	232,900	239,400	245,500	250,600	17,600	2.5%
Wholesale trade	111,700	113,800	116,100	118,000	6,300	1.8%
Retail trade (including motor vehicle repairs)	230,400	234,400	238,700	241,600	11,200	1.6%
Accommodation, cafes and restaurants	142,700	145,800	149,200	152,200	9,500	2.2%
Transport and storage	100,300	102,300	104,400	106,200	5,800	1.9%
Communication services	41,600	41,800	42,300	42,600	1,000	0.8%
Finance and insurance	70,900	72,400	74,300	76,000	5,200	2.4%
Property services	47,200	48,100	49,000	49,800	2,600	1.8%
Business services	296,800	307,800	319,800	330,100	33,300	3.6%
Government admin. and defence	138,100	141,400	144,900	147,200	9,100	2.1%
Education	221,000	224,900	229,500	232,400	11,400	1.7%
Health and community services	252,600	258,000	264,000	268,100	15,500	2.0%
Cultural and recreational services	45,900	46,700	47,800	48,400	2,400	1.7%
Personal and other community services	99,300	100,200	101,300	101,900	2,600	0.8%
Total	2,462,400	2,514,900	2,571,800	2,615,500	153,000	2.0%

Extended data table for Table 2

New Zealand					2017-20 Changes
Occupational Employment Levels	2017	2018	2019	2020	Levels	Rates
111 Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators	95,000	97,800	100,700	103,200	8,200	2.8%
121 Farmers and Farm Managers	60,300	59,400	58,300	57,000	- 3,400	-1.9%
131 Advertising, Public Relations and Sales Managers	45,100	47,200	49,500	51,700	6,600	4.7%
132 Business Administration Managers	77,400	80,800	84,400	87,600	10,200	4.2%
133 Construction, Distribution and Production Managers	61,200	62,100	62,900	63,300	2,100	1.2%
134 Education, Health and Welfare Services Managers	17,900	18,700	19,500	20,200	2,300	4.1%
135 ICT Managers	9,100	9,600	10,100	10,600	1,500	5.1%
139 Miscellaneous Specialist Managers	12,000	12,600	13,200	13,700	1,700	4.4%
141 Accommodation and Hospitality Managers	26,700	27,000	27,500	28,000	1,300	1.6%
142 Retail Managers	40,500	41,300	42,100	42,700	2,200	1.8%
149 Miscellaneous Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers	22,900	23,800	24,900	25,800	2,900	4.0%
211 Arts Professionals	10,300	10,600	11,000	11,300	1,000	3.2%
212 Media Professionals	12,700	13,100	13,500	13,900	1,200	3.0%
221 Accountants, Auditors and Company Secretaries	37,800	39,600	41,400	43,000	5,200	4.4%
222 Financial Brokers and Dealers, and Investment Advisers	12,000	12,100	12,300	12,300	300	1.0%
223 Human Resource and Training Professionals	14,600	15,100	15,600	16,000	1,400	3.0%
224 Information and Organisation Professionals	38,200	39,400	40,700	41,800	3,700	3.1%
225 Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Professionals	23,700	24,600	25,500	26,400	2,700	3.7%
231 Air and Marine Transport Professionals	7,300	7,300	7,400	7,400	100	0.5%
232 Architects, Designers, Planners and Surveyors	27,300	28,700	30,200	31,500	4,200	4.8%
233 Engineering Professionals	30,100	31,200	32,400	33,500	3,400	3.7%
234 Natural and Physical Science Professionals	17,800	18,700	19,500	20,200	2,500	4.4%
241 School Teachers	112,900	115,600	118,700	121,000	8,100	2.3%
242 Tertiary Education Teachers	20,100	20,100	20,200	20,200	100	0.1%
249 Miscellaneous Education Professionals	12,300	12,500	12,800	13,000	700	1.9%
251 Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals	14,200	14,800	15,500	16,000	1,800	4.1%
252 Health Therapy Professionals	15,000	15,600	16,100	16,600	1,500	3.3%
253 Medical Practitioners	18,100	18,700	19,300	19,800	1,700	3.1%
254 Midwifery and Nursing Professionals	54,300	55,500	56,900	57,900	3,600	2.2%
261 Business and Systems Analysts, and Programmers	41,600	43,800	46,300	48,700	7,100	5.4%
262 Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT Security Specialists	7,700	8,000	8,200	8,500	800	3.2%
263 ICT Network and Support Professionals	8,000	8,300	8,700	9,000	1,100	4.4%
271 Legal Professionals	19,400	20,500	21,600	22,700	3,300	5.3%
272 Social and Welfare Professionals	38,300	39,500	40,800	41,800	3,400	2.9%
311 Agricultural, Medical and Science Technicians	15,500	15,800	16,100	16,200	700	1.5%
312 Building and Engineering Technicians	21,700	22,400	23,200	23,700	2,000	3.0%
313 ICT and Telecommunications Technicians	9,200	9,200	9,200	9,200	-	0.0%
321 Automotive Electricians and Mechanics	20,100	19,800	19,500	19,100	- 1,000	-1.8%
322 Fabrication Engineering Trades Workers	14,100	14,700	15,200	15,700	1,700	3.8%
323 Mechanical Engineering Trades Workers	18,500	18,400	18,300	18,100	- 300	-0.6%
324 Panelbeaters, and Vehicle Body Builders, Trimmers and Painters	5,100	5,000	4,800	4,600	- 500	-3.6%
331 Bricklayers, Carpenters and Joiners	19,100	19,100	19,000	18,800	- 300	-0.6%
332 Floor Finishers and Painting Trades Workers	14,700	15,200	15,600	16,000	1,300	2.9%
333 Glaziers, Plasterers and Tilers	13,800	14,500	15,100	15,700	1,900	4.5%
334 Plumbers	13,000	13,600	14,100	14,600	1,500	3.8%
341 Electricians	20,700	21,600	22,500	23,300	2,600	4.0%
342 Electronics and Telecommunications Trades Workers	11,200	11,400	11,500	11,600	400	1.3%
351 Food Trades Workers	41,300	42,800	44,300	45,700	4,400	3.4%
361 Animal Attendants and Trainers, and Shearers	7,400	7,800	8,200	8,500	1,100	4.6%
362 Horticultural Trades Workers	17,700	17,700	17,800	17,900	200	0.4%
391 Hairdressers	10,900	10,900	10,900	10,900	- 100	-0.2%
392 Printing Trades Workers	3,700	3,500	3,300	3,000	- 700	-7.2%
393 Textile, Clothing and Footwear Trades Workers	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	-	0.2%
394 Wood Trades Workers	3,900	3,800	3,800	3,800	- 100	-0.6%
399 Miscellaneous Technicians and Trades Workers	13,600	14,000	14,400	14,700	1,100	2.7%
411 Health and Welfare Support Workers	25,700	26,600	27,600	28,400	2,700	3.4%
421 Child Carers	11,100	11,300	11,500	11,600	500	1.5%
422 Education Aides	16,500	16,600	16,800	16,900	400	0.8%
423 Personal Carers and Assistants	50,500	51,000	51,600	51,800	1,300	0.8%
431 Hospitality Workers	45,700	46,600	47,500	48,200	2,500	1.8%
441 Defence Force Members, Fire Fighters and Police	24,700	25,900	27,000	27,900	3,200	4.1%
442 Prison and Security Officers	16,600	17,500	18,400	19,200	2,600	4.9%
451 Personal Service and Travel Workers	18,200	18,100	18,000	17,800	- 300	-0.6%
452 Sports and Fitness Workers	19,600	20,500	21,300	22,100	2,500	4.0%
511 Contract, Program and Project Administrators	27,100	28,400	29,800	31,000	3,900	4.5%
512 Office and Practice Managers	49,100	52,100	55,200	58,100	9,000	5.7%
521 Personal Assistants and Secretaries	15,700	14,500	13,200	11,800	- 3,900	-9.1%
531 General Clerks	39,900	37,900	35,800	33,500	- 6,400	-5.7%
532 Keyboard Operators	2,900	2,500	2,200	1,900	- 1,000	-13.2%
541 Call or Contact Centre Information Clerks	5,100	4,900	4,800	4,700	- 400	-2.8%
542 Receptionists	30,000	30,100	30,300	30,300	300	0.3%
551 Accounting Clerks and Bookkeepers	29,600	30,100	30,600	31,000	1,400	1.5%
552 Financial and Insurance Clerks	12,700	12,300	12,100	11,800	- 900	-2.3%
561 Clerical and Office Support Workers	17,800	18,000	18,100	18,200	400	0.8%
591 Logistics Clerks	21,500	21,800	22,300	22,600	1,100	1.7%
599 Miscellaneous Clerical and Administrative Workers	21,200	21,700	22,300	22,800	1,600	2.4%
611 Insurance Agents and Sales Representatives	60,100	62,200	64,300	66,200	6,000	3.2%
612 Real Estate Sales Agents	16,000	16,500	17,100	17,700	1,700	3.4%
621 Sales Assistants and Salespersons	109,800	110,200	110,700	110,400	600	0.2%
631 Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers	17,200	17,400	17,600	17,600	400	0.8%
639 Miscellaneous Sales Support Workers	9,400	9,300	9,300	9,200	- 100	-0.5%
711 Machine Operators	24,400	24,800	25,300	25,600	1,100	1.5%
712 Stationary Plant Operators	7,900	7,400	7,100	6,900	- 1,000	-4.3%
721 Mobile Plant Operators	21,100	21,300	21,500	21,600	600	0.9%
731 Automobile, Bus and Rail Drivers	15,700	16,300	16,900	17,400	1,700	3.4%
732 Delivery Drivers	5,900	6,000	6,200	6,400	500	2.7%
733 Truck Drivers	27,900	28,200	28,400	28,400	500	0.6%
741 Storepersons	22,300	22,700	23,200	23,600	1,300	1.9%
811 Cleaners and Laundry Workers	42,700	41,900	41,500	41,000	- 1,800	-1.4%
821 Construction and Mining Labourers	25,000	25,900	26,800	27,600	2,600	3.3%
831 Food Process Workers	25,700	26,000	26,300	26,300	600	0.8%
832 Packers and Product Assemblers	16,400	16,600	16,800	16,900	500	0.9%
839 Miscellaneous Factory Process Workers	9,100	9,300	9,500	9,700	700	2.5%
841 Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers	55,100	55,400	55,800	55,900	800	0.5%
851 Food Preparation Assistants	18,500	18,700	19,000	19,200	800	1.4%
891 Freight Handlers and Shelf Fillers	7,400	7,500	7,600	7,700	300	1.4%
899 Miscellaneous Labourers	63,700	65,400	67,000	68,300	4,600	2.4%
Total	2,462,400	2,514,900	2,571,800	2,615,500	153,000	2.0%

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/employment-and-skills/labour-market-reports-data-and-analysis/labour-market-forecasting/short-term-employment-forecasts-2017-2020-february-2018/
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