International Tourism Forecasts

Since 1999, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has produced forecasts annually for a seven-year projection period. The current forecasts cover the period to 2024. The forecasts provide expectations on the future tourism demand in New Zealand. The forecasts are intended to support the tourism sector and government in decision making and planning.

The tourism forecasts are based on econometric modelling, current trends and best available forecasts of international factors and have been developed with input from members of the tourism industry.

International tourism forecasts interactive web tool

International forecasts results for key markets.

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2018 - 2024 forecasts

MBIE has updated its tourism forecasts for key tourism markets for the 2018-2024 period.

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Market forecast summaries

This year, MBIE has provided an infographic on both arrival and spend forecasts by country. In addition, we have also provided one-page forecast summaries for each market. These are included in the full report, but also available to download here.

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About the tourism forecasts

Read about the methodology and data sources used to prepare the tourism forecasts.

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Previous forecasts

Access previous national and regional forecasts from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s tourism forecasting.

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Data download

The tourism forecasts microdata are available here for re-use by specialist analysts.

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Data release calendar

Upcoming scheduled tourism survey releases.

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