This Energy Outlook article explores the long-term future for electricity in New Zealand using scenario analysis. Based on this analysis, we present key insights for investors, grid planners, policy makers and consumers. It presents modelling results to 2040, and is the first part of a series of Energy Outlook Insight publications, which will focus on different parts of the energy system.
This article is focused on electricity and has two main parts. In the first part we define our scenarios and sensitivities. We do this by outlining what our key modelling assumptions are, and how they differ between scenarios and sensitivities.
While no one scenario can be used to predict the future, by considering the scenarios and sensitivities together we can make general conclusions about the future. In the second part of this article we present these as ‘key insights’ about electricity supply, greenhouse gas emissions, and prices.
Readers should interpret the results and insights in this article within the modelling framework from which they were produced. In our modelling we assume the following principles:
- The price of energy reflects the underlying cost of new supply, to ensure new investment occurs and to encourage efficient energy use.
- Timely investment in the lowest cost generation is facilitated through transparent markets and efficient resource allocation mechanisms.
- Competition, and careful regulatory scrutiny of network investment decisions, ensures prices reflect underlying costs.
This article is supported by detailed data tables available for download below. For information on our modelling methodology, please see our energy modelling methodology webpage.
For further information or assistance please contact us at email@example.com.
Download the document
Download the web tables
- Scenario and sensitivity summary: demand, price indicator, emissions [XLSX 198KB]
- Mixed Renewables scenario results [XLSX 226KB]
- High Geothermal Access scenario results [XLSX 225KB]
- Low Cost Fossil Fuels scenario results [XLSX 224KB]
- Global Low Carbon scenario results [XLSX 225KB]
- Sensitivity to the Mixed Renewables scenario – High Growth [XLSX 226KB]
- Sensitivity to the Mixed Renewables scenario – Low Growth [XLSX 221KB]
- Sensitivity to the Mixed Renewables scenario – Tiwai Off [XLSX 221KB]
- Assumptions Summary [XLSX 258KB]